interview with dario amodei about the “end of the exponential” in ai. I think this was an interesting look into how a CEO thinks about the economics of the AI industry in a rather upfront way. While I am somewhat skeptical about some of the hyper and frothier parts of the AI market, I think Dario has been a pretty honest leader in terms of how he measures and communicates the economic impacts of the technology. I think some of the highlights about this post:

• the breakdown of the economics of the model were incredibly clear, and really reminded me of how the chip manufaturing industry works (where the fabs need to be created and scaled in a way that matches the demand of the market, and things need to be planned ahead of time in advanced). this is off of my very sketchy and short term understanding from one Aquired episode on NVIDIA, but it was still an interesting connection
• the (kinda scary) certainty with which Dario talks about the exponential in terms of its impacts on SWEs. its making me think “damn, i need to find a way to (a) utilize these tools better and (b) figure out what to reskill in quickly. i think that’s a part of the reason i’m writing these blog posts. i’m kinda “live figuring out my future” here (because i need an audience to work it through with)